Trump's ceasefire with Iran has multiple stumbling blocks, but none as unmanageable as Bibi. Netanyahu's negotiations with Lebanon about disarming Hezbollah, but continuing attacking them in the meantime, does the Lebanese civilians no good. If the Lebanese government had such capability, it would have done so already.
With both Iran and Trump wanting an exit ramp, the Lebanese may become the victim of the contrived truce. If Trump exerts himself enough, he has the cards to restrain Israel.
Netanyahu had been waiting decades to see Iran's capacities degraded. Trump's compliance with Netanyahu's agenda will be costly for the Republicans, but it wasn't Trump's first or last compulsive decision.
Trump is trapped, he has no easy way out, I doubt he can accept most of Iran's proposals and escalation will eventually end his ability to control the markets. It is now 6 weeks and Iran is not unlikely to fold up. While the pundits want escalation, the results will be very bad for the global economy and the president.
ReplyDeleteOf course, Iran will be damaged severely, they appear ready to assume that risk.
The precision weapons will run out, that will require flying over Iran. The defensive interceptors will run out, hopefully not before Iran runs out of missiles. Without some resolution soon, the global economy and markets will finally give up hope.
Ground war will not be easy and could last for many months or years. Does anyone have a real way out ?
We will probably see some sort of pause while both sides decide their next move.
I would break away completely from that mess of a nation. Walk away. Let nations adjacent to Iran deal with it. Stop all passage of Iranian citizens coming in to America, and thoroughly investigate those already here.
DeleteThere is nothing Iran provides to us that we can’t live without.